If you needed proof that the Georgian war was a PR set-up, it came soon enough. Within days, Donald Tusk hurriedly signed up for US missiles while John McCain topped the media ratings.
The majority of ordinary Poles aren’t so enthusiastic. ‘It puts our head between the hammer and the anvil’, as my friend Marek said. But of course, America is the master at starting wars in faraway places. Far from America, that is.
Though now it might need no help in starting a war in Europe. There are plenty of other hotheads around. The deal puts Poland’s finger firmly on the trigger. To quote Donald Tusk:
‘Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later – it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of – knock on wood – any possible conflict.’
Any pretence that the ‘possible conflict’ will come from unspecified ‘rogue states’ has been dropped. As a condition of the deal, Poland insisted on a war chest of short range hardware, along with a beefed-up airforce and Patriot missile batteries.
The quote from Donald Tusk is rather telling. All Georgia got from the US was a couple of planeloads of Aunt Jemima’s pancake mix – after it had surrendered. Poland wants to push that big button now.
Much has been written about the fact that the Missile Defense System doesn’t work and probably never will. Six years of flight tests were inconclusive and the European launcher has yet to be built, let alone evaluated. Moreover, the new Russian Topol MIRV missile splits into 10 warheads after take-off, giving the ‘Interceptor’ a less than lucky shot chance.
But that’s academic. The whole point is that the Missile Defense System isn’t defense at all. The deployment and siting is clearly part of a first strike strategy. Something like a Topol MIRV has to be hit before it’s launched. And quite obviously, Russia’s numerical advantage in all missile classes is only negated if you hit the silos first. It’s not rocket science. Used pre-emptively, Poland’s few missiles are a huge threat. For Iran and Korea, read Moscow and St. Petersburg.
This is why the deployment of this pre-emptive strike capability in Poland dramatically increases the consequences of an incident such as Georgia. In any conflict with a rogue NATO state, Russia would be obliged tactically to blow away Poland and the Czech republic within minutes. A beef ban or a sprat ban won’t do the business anymore.
But not to worry. Once Europe is devastated, America will show up with humanitarian aid: Condi Rice, blankets and Betty Crocker cake mixes. The Georgian feint was a wonderful trial run of what America has in store for us.
